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Excess supply ethylene glycol market: weak or difficult to change

by:Yixin     2020-04-15
Due to the ethylene glycol end demand recovery was slow, ethylene glycol imbalance between supply and demand in a short period of time is difficult to change. In this case, the supply pressure is still a dominant factor, ethylene glycol market will continue to find ethylene glycol. Supply pressure is obvious excess supply ethylene glycol price since the fourth quarter of last year is weakening, the main reasons for the current oversupply problems still exist. First of all, the domestic supply side, as of February 15, domestic ethylene glycol legal system starts at 83. 5%, compared with the previous week 3. 3%; Coal glycol starts at 84. 6%, compared with the previous week 16. 3%. Domestic ethylene glycol overall construction load of 85%, rising from the previous week 8. 4%. With ethylene glycol starts load increasing, the domestic market supply will increase further, the excess supply problem will be further intensified. Second, the import side, due to domestic ethylene glycol abundant supply, prices are low, ethylene glycol import arbitrage Windows are always closed. So far, the price of imported ethylene glycol to fold the premium in east China spot price 200 yuan/tons. Falling demand for high import source, ethylene glycol imported a declining trend in the fourth quarter of last year. Looking afternoon, India and Thailand glycol unit will overhaul, international supply crunch, inner and outer plate gap is expected to expand, thus further curb imports. Due to the ethylene glycol end demand recovery was slow, ethylene glycol imbalance between supply and demand in a short period of time is difficult to change. In this case, the supply pressure is still a dominant factor, ethylene glycol market will continue to find ethylene glycol. Supply pressure is obvious excess supply ethylene glycol price since the fourth quarter of last year is weakening, the main reasons for the current oversupply problems still exist. First of all, the domestic supply side, as of February 15, domestic ethylene glycol legal system starts at 83. 5%, compared with the previous week 3. 3%; Coal glycol starts at 84. 6%, compared with the previous week 16. 3%. Domestic ethylene glycol overall construction load of 85%, rising from the previous week 8. 4%. With ethylene glycol starts load increasing, the domestic market supply will increase further, the excess supply problem will be further intensified. Second, the import side, due to domestic ethylene glycol abundant supply, prices are low, ethylene glycol import arbitrage Windows are always closed. So far, the price of imported ethylene glycol to fold the premium in east China spot price 200 yuan/tons. Falling demand for high import source, ethylene glycol imported a declining trend in the fourth quarter of last year. Looking afternoon, India and Thailand glycol unit will overhaul, international supply crunch, inner and outer plate gap is expected to expand, thus further curb imports. Again, due to the poor downstream consumption of ethylene glycol port high inventory, hitting a new high last five years. As of February 14, in east China ethylene glycol port inventory for 106. Compared to last year, 60000 tons, up 460000 tons of ethylene glycol peak in early October, 75. 91%. Among them, zhangjiagang glycol inventory for 75. 10000 tons, up 43 in early October last year on year. 80000 tons, up 139. 94%; Taicang port glycol inventory is 11. 50000 tons, up 0 in early October last year on year. 70000 tons, up 6. 48%; Ningbo glycol inventory of 9. 30000 tons, a 0 drop in early October last year. 40000 tons, down four. 12%. The whole, although arbitrage window closes, the import has a downward trend, but this is hard to change the status quo of domestic supply pressure is bigger. At present, the domestic ethylene glycol starts the load increase, hitting a stage of high inventory, the excess supply of ethylene glycol price suppression effect obviously, need time to stock market. Cost to support affected by more than expected OPEC's implementation situation, global oil supply and demand are expected to accelerate the rebalancing process. Affected by market factors, the international crude oil keeps rising recently. In this case, the cost of the system of ethylene glycol center of gravity will move up, for the present at a small profit status of ethylene glycol will generate strong support. Demand recovery was slow after the Spring Festival, the early repair of polyester enterprise in rehabilitation. Polyester inventory is low at present, polyester enterprises urgently need to increase production to meet the coming peak season of consumption. It is important to note that the shortage of terminal orders terminal weaving resume work process has slowed this year, companies will also not strong goods. Demand picks up, may be less than expected, which would delay the ethylene glycol to inventory process. Afternoon prediction to sum up, due to current demand recovery was slow, ethylene glycol imbalance between supply and demand is difficult to change. In this case, the supply pressure is still the dominant factor price of ethylene glycol. High inventory at present, in a short period of time of ethylene glycol weak pattern is still difficult to change.
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